Canary Islands Politics: Winning Doesn’t Always Mean Governing
The political landscape in the Canary Islands appears set to revisit one of its recurring paradoxes: winning does not necessarily equate to governing. This happened in 2023, when the PSOE emerged as the most voted party yet was ultimately ousted from the regional government, a scenario that could repeat itself in 2027.
Electoral Outlook
The inaugural Electoral Observatory of the Canary Islands, conducted by the Canarian Office of Market Studies and Public Opinion for Atlántico Hoy, presents a picture suggesting that the socialists would still lead at the ballot box. However, the coalition comprising Coalición Canaria, the Partido Popular, and Agrupación Herreña Independiente, with the support of Agrupación Socialista Gomera (ASG), retains real options to maintain power. This survey, conducted between 19 and 25 May 2026 through 1,639 interviews across all islands, arrives at a politically tense moment between the Canary Islands and the central government.
Disputes over the distribution of migrant minors, disagreements regarding regional funding, and recent incidents such as the management of a vessel affected by a hantavirus outbreak have stoked tensions between the government led by Fernando Clavijo and La Moncloa.
Potential Social Democratic Decline
This context coincides with a particularly challenging period for the PSOE on a national level. The corruption scandals affecting Pedro Sánchez’s party cast a shadow over the socialist brand across the country. Yet, the survey indicates that Ángel Víctor Torres retains a remarkable political resilience. He remains the preferred leader for Canarians to occupy the regional presidency, and the PSOE continues to hold the top electoral position.
However, this victory may be insufficient. The Electoral Observatory estimates that the PSOE could secure between 21 and 24 parliamentary seats, a figure nearly identical to their current standing. Meanwhile, Coalición Canaria and AHI would gain 21 seats, the Partido Popular would reach 15 to 16, Vox might increase to between 7 and 9 MPs, and ASG would keep its three representatives from La Gomera.
The consequence is clear: the current governing coalition could again assemble a sufficient parliamentary majority to remain in power, even if the PSOE emerges as the most voted party.
Public Sentiment
Perhaps the most striking data from the survey reveals the distance between citizens’ evaluations of the government and its electoral prospects. A significant 48.1% of respondents deem the government of the Canary Islands to perform poorly or very poorly, compared to just 21.8% who approve of its management. Another 27.3% describe it as average. This result is unequivocally negative, as nearly one in two citizens criticises the regional government’s performance.
Nonetheless, this decline does not seem to translate into electoral collapse. The explanation lies in the lack of a viable alternative to fully capitalise on the dissatisfaction. While the PSOE maintains its leadership, it struggles to expand its support base significantly. Coalición Canaria loses some momentum relative to 2023 in certain islands but retains a remarkably robust territorial structure. The PP holds firm, and Vox emerges as the main beneficiary of protest votes within the conservative bloc.
The New Canarias’ Decline
If any party stands to suffer significantly in this survey, it is Nueva Canarias. The formation founded by Román Rodríguez appears on the brink of parliamentary extinction, having been a central actor in regional politics for decades.
In Gran Canaria, where it traditionally wielded electoral strength, projections place NC between 7% and 8%, far from the results that previously allowed it representation. It is also likely to lose its seat in Lanzarote and, similarly, disappear from Fuerteventura’s distribution. The rationale behind this downturn has a name: Primero Canarias.
Understanding Voter Fragmentation
The split caused by former leaders of Nueva Canarias has fragmented an already weakened electoral space since the end of the Pacto de las Flores. The survey illustrates that much of this progressive nationalist vote is dispersed among various options, all of which face significant challenges in exceeding electoral thresholds. The result is devastating: thousands of votes could remain unrepresented in parliament.
It is no coincidence that the category of “Others” achieves extraordinarily high percentages in several constituencies. In Tenerife, it fluctuates between 21% and 25%, in Gran Canaria between 18% and 22%, and regionally it reaches up to 24%.
There exists an increasing segment of voters seeking alternatives to the traditional party system, yet this fragmentation ultimately benefits established parties.
Growth of Vox in the Canaries
Another notable phenomenon reflected in the survey is the rise of Vox. The far-right party could increase its current five MPs to a range of seven to nine, consolidating itself as the fourth major party in the regional legislature. Its growth is particularly evident in Gran Canaria, where it could secure three MPs; in Tenerife, where it might reach two; and in Fuerteventura, where it would gain representation.
Rather than a spectacular advance, the survey indicates a solidification of Vox’s position, transforming it from an electoral anomaly into a stable actor within the Canarian political system.
Leadership Ratings and Voter Disengagement
Leadership evaluations reveal another intriguing trend. Fernando Clavijo and Casimiro Curbelo tie as the best-rated leaders in the Canary Islands, both earning a score of 4.8 out of 10. Neither achieves approval, yet both lead the rankings. Ángel Víctor Torres receives a score of 4.4, while Román Rodríguez falls to 4.0.
Perhaps the most revealing statistic is not the leaders’ ratings but the growing detachment among citizens. A striking 11.1% claim not to know any of the proposed leaders, while the most favoured response regarding who should assume the presidency is simply “none”, with 28.8%. Despite this, Torres leads the preferences for the regional presidency with 19.8%, closely followed by Fernando Clavijo with 18.3%. The margin is minimal.
Regional Constituency Insights
The survey confirms that the Canary Islands remain a politically fragmented archipelago. In the regional constituency, the PSOE stands as the leading force with an estimated 3 to 4 seats and electoral support of 27% to 28%, though losing some of the advantage it held in May 2023 when it garnered 33% of the votes and four representatives.
Still, the socialist party maintains a dominant position in this electoral arena, continuing to be the main reference for the progressive bloc. Coalición Canaria and the Partido Popular are almost tied in the race for second place. The nationalists would garner between 20% and 21% of the votes, consolidating two seats and showing slight improvement from three years ago. The PP would range between 16% and 17%, also holding two representatives despite a slight drop from 2023.
The primary change is the consolidation of Vox, which could capture between one and two regional MPs with support between 13% and 14%. The party led by Santiago Abascal continues to expand its electoral footprint in the Canary Islands, reinforcing its presence across nearly all islands.
Behind these main parties is a broad block of parties lacking representation—among them, Nueva Canarias, Drago Canarias, and Primero Canarias—that collectively accounts for between 20% and 24% of the regional vote. However, the fragmentation of this political space and the electoral thresholds hinder them from translating their growth into seats.
Island-by-Island Analysis
Gran Canaria
Gran Canaria continues to be the PSOE’s electoral stronghold. The socialists are projected to secure six MPs and between 28% and 29% of votes, improving on the five seats won in 2023 and widening their lead over rival parties. Coalición Canaria would retain its four island representatives, but with a higher voting percentage than three years ago, between 18% and 19%. Vox is highlighted as a notable success story in this analysis, moving from two to three MPs and approaching 14% to 15% electoral support, establishing itself as the third political force on the island. Coalición Canaria also shows improvement, progressing from one to two island seats, achieving between 11% and 12% of the vote. However, their growth remains far from the historic levels previously reached in Gran Canaria. The key loser is Nueva Canarias, which would lose the three representatives acquired in 2023, recording between 7% and 8%, an inadequate figure to surpass electoral thresholds. A portion of those votes seems to be shifting towards new alternatives like Primero Canarias and other emerging candidacies, even though none attain representation.
Tenerife
Tenerife stands out as one of the most fiercely contested areas of the archipelago. The PSOE and Coalición Canaria are forecasted to tie in MP estimates, each securing five representatives, although the equilibrium conceals markedly different dynamics compared to the 2023 elections. The nationalists would suffer a significant setback, dropping from six to five MPs while losing over five percentage points of support. Nevertheless, CC remains a key political reference in the island with substantial territorial backing. In contrast, the PSOE shows slight improvement, consolidating around 24% to 25% of the votes. This parity between the two parties establishes Tenerife as a battleground for the 2027 regional elections. The Partido Popular keeps its three representatives, while Vox doubles its presence, moving from one to two MPs, thereby reinforcing the centre-right bloc on the island. Additionally, parties like Drago Canarias, Primero Canarias, and Nueva Canarias increase their electoral presence, pushing the block of unrepresented forces up to nearly 25%, although fragmentation continues to impede their growth being translated into seats.
Lanzarote
Coalición Canaria continues to dominate Lanzarote with estimated three seats and between 28% and 29% of the votes, closely aligning with the dynamics of the 2023 elections. The nationalist party thus retains a solid position in an island where it has historically held considerable influence. The PSOE remains the second force, despite a slight erosion from the previous elections, projected to secure between two and three MPs and support between 24% and 25%, compared to 29.8% achieved three years ago. The Partido Popular achieves significant improvement, moving from one to two representatives while approaching 20% of the votes. Vox enters the race for representation with an estimated zero to one seat and support between 8% and 9%. Nueva Canarias sees a decline in electoral visibility on the island and would fall out of the seat distribution, while other political forces maintain meaningful percentages but insufficient to meet the legislative thresholds required by Canary Islands electoral law.
Fuerteventura
Fuerteventura also remains under nationalist leadership. CC retains its first-place status with three MPs and between 27% and 28% of the votes. Though this represents a slight fall compared to the results from 2023, it is not enough to jeopardize its dominant position on the island. The Partido Popular strengthens its second-place status with two representatives and a level of support between 20% and 21%. This growth occurs amidst fierce competition within the centre-right space, where Vox continues to gain ground. The PSOE keeps its two island seats but experiences a drop in support obtained in the last elections, with estimates between 18% and 19%, several points lower than in 2023. The main development is the emergence of Vox, which would secure a seat on the island with support between 8% and 9%. Conversely, Nueva Canarias would lose the seat gained three years ago, ending up with between 7% and 8%, an insufficient percentage to maintain representation.
La Palma
In La Palma, following the crisis triggered by the Cumbre Vieja volcano eruption, CC solidifies its position as the hegemonic force. The nationalist party is projected to win four of the eight seats available, with voting support between 39% and 40%, maintaining a wide lead over its competitors. The PSOE retains its two representatives, with estimates between 24% and 25%, closely mirroring the results from 2023. This stability allows the PSOE to remain the second force on the island. The Partido Popular also retains its two MPs, although it experiences a drop in electoral support compared to the previous elections. Some of this decline seems to shift toward Vox and other emerging candidates which increase their presence but fail to secure representation.
La Gomera
La Gomera remains virtually unchanged. ASG retains almost uncontested dominance on the island, with Casimiro Curbelo’s formation likely to keep three out of the four contested seats, achieving electoral support between 53% and 54%, figures closely resembling those recorded in 2023. The PSOE would maintain the remaining seat with support between 17% and 18%, remaining the second political force in La Gomera, though greatly distanced from ASG. The remaining political parties together aggregate between 28% and 30% of the votes, yet none would achieve parliamentary representation. The fragmentation of the alternative vote continues to bolster the extraordinary electoral strength of the islandist organisation. La Gomera remains the most stable constituency in the archipelago, presenting minimal variations compared to the scenario from the May 2023 regional elections.
El Hierro
In El Hierro, Agrupación Herreña Independiente once again emerges as the leading political force on the island: it would gain support and secure two out of the three available seats, with electoral backing between 36% and 37%. The islandist party repeats the territorial dominance pattern that has historically characterised Herreña politics. The contest for the third seat is exceptionally competitive. The PSOE, Agrupación Electoral por El Hierro, and the Partido Popular are all within the margin of error of the survey, with estimates fluctuating between 14% and 19%. Any of these three formations could secure the final representation. The most likely scenario positions the PSOE as the beneficiary of this contest, granting them one MP, though the margin between competitors is minimal, and any movement during the campaign could alter the final allocation.
Conclusions from the First Electoral Observatory
The conclusion drawn from the first Electoral Observatory of the Canary Islands for Atlántico Hoy is paradoxical. There is government weariness, public discontent, institutional conflicts with Madrid, political fragmentation, a crisis within Nueva Canarias, and the growth of Vox. Yet, when looking at the seats, the final outcome remarkably resembles that of three years ago.
The Canary Islands seem poised to witness a repetition of the 2023 scenario: a PSOE that wins without a majority, a governing bloc that retains options for continued governance, and a parliament that is more fragmented, polarised, and with less room for the centrist forces that shaped regional politics over the past decade.
