The specialists of the Scientific Committee for the Assessment and Monitoring of Volcanic Phenomena (CCES), established under the Special Plan for Civil Protection and Emergency Response concerning volcanic risk in the Canary Islands (Pevolca), concur that the Teide volcanic activity shows signs, although they “do not appear to be forerunners of an eruptive event in the near future; nevertheless, they do indicate a heightened likelihood of it occurring in the medium to long term.”
Researchers who monitor volcanic hazards have identified since 2023 a “slight” rise in CO2 emissions in various regions of Tenerife, including the Teide crater, alongside a “slight” deformation of the land. Despite these indications, they emphasise that the possibility of an eruption occurring in the short or medium term on this island has not escalated.
As they elucidate, the seismic, geodetic and geochemical variations observed since 2016 may be exhibiting a certain increase from 2022, likely due to elevated pressure in the hydrothermal system beneath the island of Tenerife, suggesting that heightened surveillance would be prudent.
These occurrences, along with the uptick in seismic activity, do not necessitate the island being marked yellow (alert) on the volcanic risk map, underscored Itahiza Domínguez, the director of the National Geographic Institute (IGN) in the Canary Islands. “It is crucial that people comprehend that this is not comparable to the situation we faced on La Palma prior to the eruption” of the Cumbre Vieja volcano in 2021, asserted Domínguez, who participated in a meeting of the aforementioned committee yesterday.
Combatting False Information
The Minister of Territorial Policy, Territorial Cohesion, and Water of the Government of the Canary Islands, Manuel Miranda, sought to convey a message of “calm and caution” to the public, after overseeing the extraordinary meeting of the scientific committee, amidst the uncertainty generated by the seismic swarms noted in the Las Cañadas area towards the end of last year.
Miranda accentuated “the research efforts and ongoing monitoring” undertaken by experts while assuring that “the Government of the Canary Islands, in close collaboration with the Cabildo of Tenerife, will continue to uphold scientific integrity and transparency” in order to mitigate alarmism, falsehoods, and misinformation.
Seismic Activity in Las Cañadas, Adeje, and Vilaflor
Among the most significant findings is the indication that since 2016, alterations in gas emissions have been noted at Teide, suggesting a rise in pressure within the hydrothermal system, which can also be correlated with the levels of recorded seismic activity. Seismicity tends to be concentrated around Las Cañadas, the peaks of Adeje and Vilaflor, while also maintaining an activity zone beneath Teide.
In June and July 2023, a seismic swarm of over 30 km deep was registered for the first time, 40 km underneath Santiago del Teide, and by the end of that year another swarm occurred between 17 km and 23 km deep beneath Las Cañadas. Additional, less significant seismogenic zones have been identified beneath Izaña and in the Arico peaks. Experts stress that none of this information in isolation, nor in relation to one another, is adequate to draw any conclusions regarding the likelihood of an eruption.
The director of the IGN in the Islands clarified that basaltic eruptions, typical in the Canary Islands, are accompanied by “very strong” precursors, consisting of seismicity palpable to the public and “extremely dense” swarms, in addition to ground deformation or gas emissions. “This is not what we observe currently; even those minor swarms in Las Cañadas cannot be deemed as such. We are not witnessing magma movement per se, but we must remain vigilant,” remarked Domínguez, who reminded that “Tenerife is a volcanically active island and there will inevitably be an eruption at some point. The question remains when.”
For his part, the director of the Canary Islands Volcanological Institute (Involcan), Nemesio Pérez, concurred that, despite these developments, “the probability of an eruption in Tenerife is relatively low (…) We are discussing weeks or months.” Pérez explained that gas emissions in Tenerife have experienced “notable alterations” since 2016, which serve as “a crucial indicator of changes in volcanic activity,” though this “does not imply that these are precursors to an eruption.”
