The National Geographic Institute has identified volcanic activity in the Cañadas del Teide, close to Pico Viejo. This development has raised concerns among local inhabitants, given that similar seismic swarms preceded the eruption of La Palma Volcano. Nevertheless, geologists suggest that these movements could be linked to the presence of steam or water within the volcano.
Despite the unease, specialists assert that Teide will not alter its present state in the immediate future. However, various studies highlight that the volcano remains active, underscoring the necessity for continuous observation. An analysis conducted by geologist Joan Martí has assessed the likelihood of an eruption at Teide within the forthcoming years and the potential progression of such an event.
Published in the Bulletin of Volcanology, research suggests that the Teide-Pico Volcanic Complex (TPV) is among the active systems in Europe, even though it has not historically been perceived as explosive or a significant threat to Tenerife. This finding has sparked discussions regarding the necessity for more stringent surveillance of this formation, given that its recent seismic activities could signify impending activity.
The results from the study indicate that the risks presented by TPV necessitate a thorough evaluation to measure the volcanic danger in Tenerife. The significance of maintaining ongoing monitoring of the complex is emphasised, acknowledging that although it has not been regarded as an immediate risk, the possibility of an eruption should not be dismissed and must be incorporated into prevention and emergency response strategies.
A study conducted in 2011 revealed that when surveying various risk factors, Teide poses a considerable threat. The report cautioned that volcanoes with prolonged periods of dormancy often receive insufficient attention, leading to catastrophes in the past. This alert highlights the importance of not underestimating those volcanoes deemed inactive, as their activity might be revived, leading to significant repercussions.
The last eruption of Teide took place in 1909. In 2004, a seismic event was recorded that garnered significant attention from experts. Over the last 12,000 years, the volcano has experienced 16 eruptions, the most vigorous occurring 2,020 years ago, registering a magnitude of 5.3.
The likelihood of an eruption of comparable or greater magnitude is estimated at 2.1% within the next 20 years, 5.1% over 50 years, and 10% across the next century. Additionally, there is an 11.1% chance of a smaller magnitude eruption occurring before 2060.
In terms of potential impact on Tenerife, the study outlines various eruptive scenarios. Simulations suggest that the southern flank of the island would be sheltered by the caldera of Las Cañadas, whereas the northeast region, where Santa Cruz de Tenerife and San Cristóbal de la Laguna are situated, might be at an elevated risk. This assessment underscores the importance of surveillance and readiness for any eventualities, given the seismic activities and the potential for an eruption.
The northern slope of Teide, specifically the valleys of Icod and La Orotava, faces risks associated with TPV, including lava flows driven by gravity. There is a distinct possibility that lava could reach the coastline, where a resident population of over 900,000 inhabits an area of 2,050 square kilometres.
In the event of an eruption, phonolitic materials would primarily accumulate in the caldera of Las Cañadas and the valleys of Icod and La Orotava. The lava, characterised by high viscosity and low temperature, could travel considerable distances while maintaining an average thickness of ten metres. It is anticipated that the lava could extend beyond 16 kilometres, reaching the coast, as witnessed during previous eruptions. Furthermore, there exists a risk of deposit build-up and pyroclastic flows.
The study indicates that these hazards could influence densely populated areas in the northern TPV and other locations, depending on prevailing wind directions. In the event of Plinian or subplinian eruptions, which generate toxic gases and ash explosions, the effects could affect wider regions.
