Miguel Martín considers that the forecasting studies of voting intentions carried out by his company reflected the electoral results on the islands with great precision. However, such a strong fall in Podemos was not expected, nor such a significant rise in Vox. And on the island of La Palma, with the eruption, the citizens have felt unprotected.
The surveys from the Profiles Institute offered a photograph that was very close to the intention to vote in the Canary Islands, right?
The surveys for EL DÍA and La Provincia managed to reflect the results that were finally produced quite accurately. We carried out 2,400 surveys on all the islands. The geographic distribution of the population and the establishment of each party were taken into account to have the most reliable image possible. The vast majority were done over the phone. And these could be complemented with others carried out through the internet and at a personal level.
Did national trends have much influence in the Canary Islands?
They have influenced, yes. It should not be forgotten that VOX triples its 2019 results. And the PP improves notably. But with the nuance that in the Canary Islands there are parties like Canarian Coalition (CC), who are well established in the different constituencies.
The messages of PP and VOX about the risk of the breakup of Spain, the concessions to the independentistas, the supposed errors of Podemos or the supposed greater insecurity in areas like Catalonia, have they been assumed in the Archipelago?
They are accepted on the Peninsula, but not so much in the Canary Islands. Yes, there has been a vote of general punishment for Pedro Sánchez. Issues such as immigration, the cost of living or job insecurity that are attributed to the PSOE have been taken advantage of by VOX, which has obtained four deputies in the Parliament of the Canary Islands. What has been attempted by the two large blocs is that these elections be in a first round of the general elections.
And, in view of the announcement of the call for Pedro Sánchez for next July 23, that’s how they have been.
Yes. First of all, Sánchez tries to abort or postpone the internal crisis in the PSOE, where there are barons who are critical of the national leader. In addition, he tries to avoid further growth of the PP, which will achieve greater media prominence by governing in several more autonomies. But, in addition, he seeks to leave the different parties without room for maneuver, which will be focused on forming governments or pacts to come to power in numerous institutions.
Will Pedro Sánchez resort to the vote of fear to stop the right and the extreme right?
I think if. He will influence the strategy of blocks and confrontation, which has worked for him, and he will take out the survival manual, since he is a survivor; Well, after being expelled from the party, he won a primaries and a vote of no confidence, to reach Moncloa, where he has remained thanks to various pacts.
What the survey did not contemplate was that the fall of Podemos was so important.
We gave one or two seats to Podemos; and we considered sure that at least Noemí Santana, the head of the list, would achieve representation. The debate between the candidates on Radio Televisión Canaria did not favor it. And another problem for her was the irruption of Drago Verdes Canarias, which has subtracted votes.
And such growth was not expected from VOX either.
We gave VOX a maximum of three seats and they have obtained one more. It is an amazing result. Another thing is the ability to govern.
On La Palma, the volcano have reached the polls.
The effects of the volcano have played a fundamental role in the Cabildo de La Palma. On that island, the pandemic was added to the eruption and there has been a perception of lack of protection among citizens. Hence the results of CC, which achieved an absolute majority. It must be remembered that, in addition, in said corporation there was a PP-PSOE pact.
The PSOE consolidates in La Laguna.
The increase in support for the PSOE and Luis Yeray Gutierrez It planned. And also the stagnation of CC. It should be mentioned that Drago Verdes breaks into said town hall, with two councilors. The only viable pact will be that of the PSOE with Unidas se Puede and Drago Verdes, despite the serious differences of alberto rodriguez with his former colleagues.
And in Santa Cruz de Tenerife the PSOE has also won.
In Santa Cruz de Tenerife we were surprised by the results, as we gave a slight victory to Coalición Canaria. After the events of the last few days (the incident involving PSOE number two at the El Tablero soccer field, with one seriously injured and the arrest of mayor José Ángel Martín) we believed that it would generate destabilization in favor of CC, but we did not it has been like that
Results of the 28M elections in the Canary Islands
Remember that the May 28 You can consult in La Provincia the results of the regional elections, council elections and municipal elections in Canaries 2023:
