SANTA CRUZ DE TENERIFE, March 3 (EUROPA PRESS) –
The Chamber of Commerce of Santa Cruz de Tenerife foresees that the Canary Islands economy could grow by around 3% in 2023, as long as tourism responds as it has up to now, although said growth will be a significantly lower rate than last year. but also above the increase expected for the Spanish economy as a whole.
According to the Canary Islands Economic Situation Bulletin corresponding to the fourth quarter of 2022, the Canary Islands economy maintained its dynamism during the fourth quarter of last year, mainly due to the good results obtained by the tourism sector and the good behavior of employment in the whole of the year. In this way, 2022 closed with growth in its first estimates by ISTAC of 8.2% (2.7 points higher than the national figure, which stands at 5.5%), although the Chamber of Commerce forecasts that this growth could be even higher, standing at around 9%.
Thus, for the second consecutive year, the Canary Islands register growth in its Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which has allowed it to recover a large part of the wealth lost in 2020 as a result of the pandemic (the drop in GDP was 19, 1%), without yet reaching the levels of 2019.
For the general director of the Chamber, Lola Pérez, “these are good results and also favorable prospects that will have to be consolidated throughout the year, since there is no doubt that uncertainty continues to be high and that, although Growth is expected to continue during this first quarter of the year, which is marked by the end of a good tourist high season, as the year progresses and the effects of the rise in interest rates on the economies become more apparent. families and the costs of companies, it will be more difficult to maintain the activity and employment achieved up to now”.
For his part, the territorial director of CaixaBank in the Canary Islands, Manuel Afonso, has stressed that the “shocks” of recent years “make the current context especially difficult to assess” but they remain “moderately optimistic”. “Most likely, GDP and employment growth will remain positive but modest and our entity is in a very solid position to continue helping families and companies, to help reduce the impact of the economic deterioration that may produce is more moderate,” he added.
The main concern for the chamber entity is the impact of the rate hike on the economy, a rise that has not yet ended under pressure from inflation, the intensity and duration of which is still difficult to determine. If we add to this the effects of runaway core inflation, which will take longer to be counteracted, everything points to a second semester impregnated with greater difficulties for families and companies.
Given this scenario of greater difficulty for the private sector, due to the expected moderation in consumption that will translate into a moderation of activity and employment, the Chamber considers that it would be the opportune moment to undertake public investment projects that would compensate for the expected stagnation of private investment.
However, and despite having the largest budget in the history of the Canary Islands, from the chamber institution it is estimated that public activity will slow down in the second half of the year until the new elected teams take possession and take charge of the projects, if they do not deem appropriate, even suspend or reorient them, delaying their start-up and, therefore, the ability of the public sector to boost the economy during this fiscal year. The director of the Chamber insisted once again that legal insecurity “is one of the great ballasts for the development of our region.”
In this sense, Lola Pérez believes that it would be very positive for the Canary Islands to move forward if “stable agreements were reached between the different political parties that did not put at risk the great structural reforms and strategic projects that the Canary Islands need, such as the development of the renewable energies, the improvement of large connectivity infrastructures, mobility projects and even in matters as important as the promotion of Vocational Training, the commitment to internationalization or the reform of the public sector that, unfortunately, will continue to be delayed “.
MAINTAIN CONNECTIVITY.
In addition to the increased vulnerability of families and companies due to the impact of inflation and the paralysis that may occur in the public sector due to being an election year, during this year it will also be crucial to maintain competitive connectivity conditions.
In this sense, Lola Pérez expressed her concern about two very important issues for the aviation sector. On the one hand, the repercussions that Iberia’s purchase of AirEuropa could have, as this could lead to a loss of frequencies and an increase in prices, and on the other hand, the decision that is finally adopted in Europe on the exemption from the kerosene tax on flights between the Canary Islands and the rest of the countries that, for the moment, is only approved until 2030 for air traffic with the peninsula and between the islands.
Another of the “bottlenecks” for the recovery will be, to the extent that labor continues to be demanded for traditional activities such as construction and hospitality, as well as in emerging ones such as those related to the development of the energy or audiovisual sectors. , among others, the lack of personnel to cover the aforementioned positions.
In this regard, the general director of the Chamber wanted to highlight the importance of accelerating the execution of the Canary Islands Strategy for Dual Vocational Training, with which it could be possible to adapt the professional skills acquired through professional training to the requirements of the reality of companies, promoting quality employment and boosting the economic and competitive development of the Canarian business fabric.
This is a field in which the Chambers of Commerce, as intermediation bodies, are already working through information and individualized advice to companies, detection of needs, intermediation between the business community and educational centers and training for tutors. of companies.
Finally, the director of the cameral corporation also wanted to highlight the need to maintain the productive fabric, in addition to helping it resize itself to achieve stronger and more competitive companies in all branches of activity.
“We are concerned that the business fabric is not recovering at the same rate as activity and employment, which shows that many companies were unable to reopen their doors after the pandemic, producing a phenomenon of concentration of activity with the loss of competitiveness that this entails. December 2022 ended with a total of 60,989 companies registered with Social Security with dependent workers, 905 more than at the end of 2021, but 958 less than in December 2019.
A deterioration that could worsen in the current inflationary scenario of high costs and reduced business margins on a horizon marked by a foreseeable decline in demand due to the consequences that the monetary policy decisions currently being adopted will end up having.
“For all these reasons, we have to manage to keep companies viable with measures that help them save the inflationary situation, in addition to helping them to size themselves so that they can be more ambitious in their investment, expansion and contracting capacity,” Pérez concluded.
