SANTA CRUZ DE TENERIFE APR. (Press Europa) –
The Canarian economy projects an economic growth of 2.8% of GDP in 2025, surpassing the national average. This follows the “strong performance” of the services sector and a gradual recovery of investments due to the easing of borrowing costs, with indications of a “gradual recovery” as noted in the Economic Cae Tenerife report for the first quarter of 2025.
Despite external uncertainties, the report highlights that the region “has managed to capitalise on its strategic location and advantages” to establish itself as a destination. Consequently, the archipelago exhibits “signs of economic dynamism,” albeit “with territorial disparities” that necessitate tailored attention.
The study indicates that the beginning of the year has been marked by “the deceleration” of certain indicators, yet there are “positive” signs in employment, investment, and consumption. It is noted that the GDP of the Canary Islands reached 43,099 million euros in nominal terms during the third quarter of 2024, reflecting an accumulated year-on-year growth of 7.5%.
Nevertheless, the quarterly drop of 0.5% and a 4.3% annual decline illuminate a distinct slowing of economic activity within the archipelago.
Projections suggest a moderation in growth relative to previous years, aligning with the cooling of the European economy and the normalisation of tourist flows.
The study emphasises that investments in ecological transition, digitalisation, and productive diversification will be crucial for sustaining growth and enhancing the region’s economic resilience.
The 2025 fiscal year commences with a positive quantitative outlook, marked by growth exceeding the European average, a robust recovery in employment, and historical figures in tourism, but within an unpredictable qualitative context.
Consequently, the uncertain global environment and internal structural challenges necessitate “a sustained economic strategy that harmonises economic and social growth and cohesion,” by strengthening the productive fabric, improving productivity while minimising absenteeism, and focusing on innovative sectors for a more diversified, inclusive, and resilient economy in anticipation of future external shocks.
In this context, this economic fiscal year will also be influenced by US trade policies, which have sparked global commercial tensions and raised concerns regarding their impact on regional economies, including that of the Canary Islands.
Although the direct commercial ties between the Canary Islands and the United States are limited, “the indirect effects can be substantial,” according to the CEOE-Harife report.
Consequently, changes in global supply chains may affect the availability and costs of vital resources for local industries.
Adding to this are the fluctuations in the financial markets and potential variations in the Euro-Doming exchange rate, which could impact the competitiveness of the Canarian tourism sector, particularly regarding visitors from non-EU markets.
Inflation and Other Indicators
With regards to inflation in the Canary Islands, it has followed a pattern similar to the national trend, reaching a rate of 1.6% in March 2025.
The moderation of energy and fuel prices has contributed to stabilising overall prices. Additionally, efforts are being made to ensure that wage negotiations occur in a manner that avoids second-round effects, minimising competitiveness losses.
Under these circumstances, the report states that the Canary Islands face the challenge of reconciling economic growth with territorial cohesion and social sustainability.
“Population growth, partly driven by immigration, presents new challenges in housing, public services, and employment, where an ageing population necessitates enhancements to dependency and socio-health care systems,” they added.
