Santa Cruz de Tenerife, 20 Feb. (Europa Press) –
The ‘Solar System’ team at the Institute of Astrophysics of the Canary Islands (IAC) remains engaged in the global initiative to monitor the asteroid ‘2024 YR4’ closely, aiming to ascertain its potential orbit with as much accuracy as possible before it becomes unobservable to terrestrial and space telescopes next April. This will further refine the likelihood of it impacting Earth in 2032.
In this framework, several telescopes from the observatories in the Canary Islands, under the auspices of the IAC, play a crucial role in this observational campaign.
On one side, the Gran Telescopio Canarias (GTC), situated at the Roque de los Muchachos Observatory in La Palma and featuring a 10.4-metre primary mirror, has captured the best and sole spectrum of the asteroid. This achievement has facilitated a more detailed understanding of its composition and size.
Thanks to the data from the GTC, the initial estimate of the object’s diameter, initially set between 40 and 100 metres, has been fine-tuned to a more accurate range of 40 to 60 metres.
The research led by IAC’s Julia de León Cruz indicates that the asteroid is primarily a rocky body, composed mainly of iron and magnesium silicates.
The object’s position in the sky has also been measured with precision, aiding in the improvement of its orbital calculations.
The IAC team is scheduled to continue this monitoring in the coming weeks with ongoing observations using the GTC.
Moreover, the researcher is part of the team set to employ the JWST space telescope to examine ‘2024 YR4’ during March and May of this year, which will further inform the size and composition and enhance orbital determination.
Complementing this, observations from the Optical Nordic Telescope (2.5 metres) at the Roque de los Muchachos Observatory were conducted in recent nights by a team led by ESA researcher Marco Michelli.
This data has enabled further refinements of the asteroid’s orbit, and owing to the exact measurements acquired with the 8-metre VLT telescope (ESO, Chile), the impact probability, which had risen to 3%, has now reduced to 1.5% as of 20 February.
The 1-metre diameter Survey Telescope (TST) at the Teide Observatory was also utilised to obtain positional data in January. Currently, Miquel Serra Ricart and Miguel Rodríguez Alarcón are employing the new 2-metre TWIN TELESCOPE (TTT) to attempt to gather new positional measurements, as noted by the IAC.
Wait until 2028
According to Julia de León, “it is anticipated that the impact probability will increase in the initial stages of evaluation, as improving the orbit determination will reduce uncertainty about the pathway through which the asteroid may traverse on 22 December 2032 when it crosses Earth’s orbit.”
She further elaborates that “while Earth remains within that zone, the probability value will remain significant. However, once the orbit is recalibrated with adequate precision and that area diminishes, the Earth will exit it, leading the impact probability to drop to 0%.”
The researcher emphasises the necessity of patience and acquiring more data. “If this can be completed before May, when it ceases to be visible, we can eliminate the risk. If not, we will have to wait until 2028 when the asteroid will be visible again, allowing us to gather further data. If these new measurements significantly increase the probability, we would need to contemplate a mission aimed at altering the asteroid’s orbit similar to the Dart mission, which successfully impacted Dimorphos, a moonlet of the Didymos asteroid, and effectively modified its trajectory,” she states.
