In recent days, Teide has shown unusual swelling that is causing concern among the sceptics regarding a potential eruption. While experts have dismissed the likelihood of an imminent eruption, there remains anxiety within the local community, reminiscent of the dramatic events witnessed two years ago in La Palma. Likewise, artificial intelligence (AI) has also provided its predictions regarding a forthcoming volcanic activity.
Researchers have developed AI models capable of analysing seismic and geophysical data to estimate the probability and potential timing of future eruptions.
Mount Teide, standing at 3,718 meters, is an active volcano with its last recorded eruption in 1909. Over the past 12,000 years, it has experienced 16 eruptions, with the most powerful occurring approximately 2,020 years ago, reaching a magnitude of 5.3. Recent studies have indicated a 2.1% chance of an eruption of comparable or greater magnitude within the next 20 years, a 5.1% chance over the next 50 years, and a 10% chance within the next century. Additionally, there is an 11.1% probability of a smaller magnitude eruption occurring before 2060.
The integration of AI into volcanology aims to enhance the accuracy of eruption forecasts by processing vast amounts of data from seismic sensors and satellite imagery. These AI models can detect subtle patterns and ground deformations that may precede an eruption, providing valuable insights for early warning systems and risk mitigation strategies.
While AI offers promising advancements in eruption prediction, experts emphasize that these models provide probabilistic assessments rather than exact dates. Continuous monitoring and comprehensive analysis remain essential to understand the complex behaviour of volcanoes like Teide.
In summary, the article highlights the potential of AI in improving our ability to predict volcanic eruptions, contributing to better preparedness and safety measures for communities residing near active volcanoes such as Mount Teide.
