The National Geographic Institute (Ign) has reported volcanic activity in the Cañadas del Teide, close to Pico Viejo. This finding has sparked worry among local inhabitants, as similar seismic swarms have preceded the eruption of the La Palma Volcano. Nonetheless, geologists assert that these movements could be linked to the presence of steam or water within the volcano.
Despite the unrest, specialists maintain that Teide will not alter its current condition at this time. Nevertheless, certain examinations caution that the volcano remains active, emphasising the necessity for ongoing surveillance. An analysis conducted by geologist Joan Martí has assessed the likelihood of an eruption at Teide in the upcoming years and the progression of that event.
Published in the Bulletin of Volcanology, the research suggests that the Volcanic Teide-Pico Volcanic Complex (TPV) ranks among the active systems in Europe, although it has not historically been deemed explosive or a significant risk to Tenerife. This conclusion has ignited discussions regarding the necessity for intensified observation of this formation, especially as its recent seismic activity could imply imminent activity.
The results of the study indicate that the hazards associated with TPV necessitate a thorough assessment to quantify the volcanic peril in Tenerife. The significance of maintaining ongoing monitoring of the complex is underscored, recognising that while it has not been viewed as an immediate danger, the potential for an eruption cannot be dismissed and should be factored into prevention and emergency response strategies.
A study conducted in 2011 indicated that when reviewing various risk factors, Teide poses a considerable threat. The report cautioned that volcanoes with extensive periods of dormancy are often overlooked, which has resulted in disasters in the past. This alert accentuates the need to not underestimate volcanoes regarded as inactive, as their activity can be reawakened, leading to severe consequences.
The last recorded eruption of Teide took place in 1909. In 2004, an episode of seismic agitation was noted that attracted the attention of experts. The volcano has experienced 16 eruptions in the last 12,000 years, with the most forceful occurring 2,020 years ago, registering a magnitude of 5.3.
The probability of a similar or greater eruption is estimated at 2.1% within the next 20 years, 5.1% over the next 50 years, and 10% in the following century. Furthermore, there exists an 11.1% chance of an eruption of lesser magnitude before 2060.
The northern flank of Teide, particularly the valleys of Icod and La Orotava, is susceptible to risks linked to TPV, including lava flows driven by gravity. There exists a possibility that lava could reach the coast, home to a population of over 900,000 individuals residing within an area of 2,050 square kilometres.
Should an eruption occur, phonolithic products would primarily accumulate in the basin of Las Cañadas and the valleys of Icod and La Orotava. The lavas, characterised by high viscosity and low temperature, could travel extensive distances, maintaining an average thickness of ten metres. It is estimated that the lavas might advance over 16 kilometres, reaching the coastline, as evidenced in previous eruptions. Additionally, there exists the risk of deposits and pyroclastic flows.
The study indicates that these dangers could impact populated regions in the northern part of the TPV and other areas depending on wind direction. In the event of Plinian or subplinian eruptions, characterised by toxic gas and ash eruptions, the repercussions could extend to wider areas.
