Aena’s projections for passenger traffic at airports in the Canary Islands have proven to be wildly off the mark. The resurgence of tourism throughout Europe following the end of the Covid crisis has led to some island airports being more overwhelmed than ever before. The anticipated number of travellers in 2024 across the eight airports in the Autonomous Community – exceeding 52 million, a historic high – would baffle anyone unfamiliar with the current circumstances and who relied solely on Aena’s forecasts. To illustrate just how drastically reality has overtaken Aena’s predictions, it is noteworthy that the semi-public company estimated that by 2026, there would be 44.9 million passengers at the Archipelago’s airports. Considering that last year witnessed 52.8 million travellers, it indicates that In 2024, an additional 7.9 million passengers have already been reported compared to Aena’s predictions for 2026. In simpler terms: The volume of users at the regional airport network has already surpassed Aena’s projections for two years later by 17.6%.
The Airport Regulation Document (DORA) is a five-year scheme that sets out the standards for service provision at various Spanish airfields. This plan requires approval from the Council of Ministers and includes forecasts regarding aircraft and passenger traffic at each network facility. The current DORA is for the five-year timeframe of 2022-2026. It was sanctioned on 28 September 2021, and the reality is that Aena was nowhere near accurate in forecasting future developments.
The largest discrepancy between projected traffic and actual traffic is seen at Tenerife South Airport
In their assessments of passenger traffic within the Islands, the experts and analysts of the semi-public body – with up to 49% of Aena’s capital in private ownership, while 51% is held by the state company Enaire – were not only mistaken but spectacularly so. The predictions detailed in DORA have proven to be inaccurate across all eight airports in the Archipelago, which are experiencing significantly higher passenger volumes, in some case extraordinarily so, than what Aena anticipated when devising its plans for the 2022-2026 period.
For the Gran Canaria airport, which experiences the highest levels of passenger and aircraft traffic, the forecast was for 13.14 million users by 2026. However, the Gando facility recorded up to 15.21 million passengers last year, meaning 2.07 million more were logged than Aena anticipated would travel through Gran Canaria Airport until 2026. This results in a discrepancy between predicted and actual traffic of 15.8%, and even more noteworthy, a two-year difference. Nevertheless, the imbalance is starkest at the two airports in Tenerife.
Overcrowding
Tenerife South is the second-largest airport in the Autonomous Community and the one at which there are the most requests and demands for upgrades – from institutions, business people, and users – that remain unaddressed. Currently, a project for a new functional design of the facility is being drafted, with an initial investment estimated between 300 and 400 million euros. Aena projected that there would be 10.61 million passengers in 2026, a figure that was already exceeded in 2024 when 13.74 million travellers passed through the southern Tenerife airport. Here, the airport manager was off by more than 3.1 million users. Their estimates for Reina Sofía were two years and 29.5% below actual figures. A similar pattern is evident at Tenerife North airport.
At Los Rodeos, there were 6.76 million passengers last year, which is 13.9% above Aena’s prediction of 5.93 million for two years later. Furthermore, Tenerife North has the dubious distinction of being the first of the region’s eight airports to receive an ‘officially saturated’ designation, based on the limits set by DORA. Notably, the 6.76 million travellers recorded in 2024 exceed the maximum theoretical capacity of the airport, which is set at 6.5 million.
Aena’s forecasts have proven to be flawed across all eight infrastructures of the Archipelago
The disparity between expected and actual traffic is also pronounced at the airfields on the two easternmost islands. At César Manrique-Lanzarote, nearing its maximum capacity, there were 8.71 million users last year, representing a 20% increase over the nearly 7.26 million forecast for 2026. Meanwhile, Fuerteventura airport has already registered 6.44 million passengers, which is 6.2% higher than the estimated 6.07 million Aena did not anticipate would be reached until two years later.
The difference between the figures listed in DORA – which Aena, understandably, has been revising due to their glaring inaccuracies – and the consistently higher actual numbers is also evident in the instances of the airfields on the green islands. This is particularly true for La Gomera, whose airport recorded 120,707 passengers last year, which is 44.3% above the 83,638 anticipated for 2026. The gap for El Hierro stands at 7.8% – with 322,110 travellers recorded in 2024 compared to a forecast of 298,792 for 2026 – while La Palma is the only facility that did not exceed last year’s figure of 1,496,023 users, slightly below the forecast of 1,499,778 for two years later. Yet, even in the beautiful island, with connectivity hindered by volcanic activity, the predictions fell considerably short.
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