Americans who experienced pivotal moments in history often ask others what they were doing and where they were when Kennedy was assassinated in Dallas on November 22, 1963, or during the events of 9/11 in 2001. In Spain, perhaps due to the passage of time, fewer questions arise regarding the jihadist attacks of 11M in 2004. However, the Canarians remember significant dates, such as the eruption of the last volcano in La Palma on September 19, 2021. Similarly, Tenerife residents reflect intensely on the catastrophic flooding that occurred on March 31, 2002 (31M), an Easter Sunday that defined a generation and heightened sensitivity to cold drop emergencies (DANA) across the island, particularly in the capital.
Of course, as time progresses, the immediate impact diminishes, and an increasing number of individuals dismiss any association with climate change, labelling such views as “environmentalist and hippie” perspectives. Furthermore, some are still awaiting promised aid, notably from when both CC and PP were in power at a regional level, as well as CC’s sole governance in the Tenerife Cabildo and the Santa Cruz City Council.
The DANA that struck Santa Cruz on 31M provided numerous lessons, and some preventive measures were implemented for future incidents (across various ravines, channels, and housing developments), yet the prevailing sentiment indicates that if another similar event were to occur, especially akin to the cold drop that impacted the Peninsula last Tuesday, the consequences for flat cities on the island such as Santa Cruz, Puerto de La Cruz, or the tourist areas of Las Américas and Los Cristianos (Adeje and Arona) would be unfathomable.
This devastating experience resulted in eight fatalities. Although comparisons with the immense tragedy in Valencia may be challenging, some tragically perished on the TF-5 beneath the Padre Anchieta roundabout, drowning in their vehicles—a haunting image from those unforgettable days that has now escalated significantly in the Valencian Community.
Following that significant marker, the well-known hurricane transitioned into Tropical Storm Delta on the night of November 28 to 29, 2005. Thankfully, there were no fatalities, but it ushered in an era marked by record-breaking wind gusts, reaching 248 kilometres per hour in Izaña, and left 350,000 individuals without electricity for several days. Additionally, the loss of the renowned Finger of God in Agaete left a lasting impact on the populace of Gran Canaria.
Zerolo: “An intensity that could not be foreseen”
Three years before Delta (with certain promised aid still pending, particularly for agriculture), the then mayor of Santa Cruz, Miguel Zerolo, asserted that the events of March 31 were “beyond prediction” due to the excessive rainfall within a short timeframe, leading to an unprecedented flood on the island. However, considering that Valencia has recently surpassed 600 litres per square metre (with the highest recorded level in Turís at 630 litres), the 232.6 litres recorded in Tenerife in 2002 now seem modest, despite the fact that it hadn’t been surpassed since 1869 when systematic records began.
Is Tenerife, along with the rest of the Archipelago, adequately prepared for a DANA similar to last Tuesday’s occurrence, especially if such rainfall levels are expected given current climate change trends that are introducing tropical storms to this region of the Atlantic, tornadoes to Huelva, and escalating Mediterranean temperatures? Though the memory of 31M has heightened awareness on the island more than in other regions of Spain, a paradox exists in that warnings from the State Meteorological Agency (Aemet) are not always taken seriously. This has been a common sentiment in various bars across Tenerife for years, as many residents express scepticism towards the forecasts made by Aemet or the “weatherman,” regardless of the television network broadcasting the predictions.
It is evident that the recent events on the Peninsula will strengthen this awareness, and from now on, any alerts or warnings will likely be regarded with greater seriousness. Nevertheless, over the years, a prevalent dismissive attitude towards Aemet’s warnings—or media weather reports—has persisted, often stemming from a belief that forecasts are exaggerated. This attitude has resulted in closures of schools deemed unnecessary (despite the known principle that erring on the side of caution is preferable). Economic activity subsequently falters only for “four drops to fall or nothing,” a phrase many have come to repeat often. While warnings for strong winds or tides garner more respect, alerts concerning heavy rainfall or potential flooding have faced considerable scepticism, a sentiment many acknowledge in light of the recent catastrophic images from the Peninsula.
Unquestionably, the recent initiative involving the regional government’s notifications for potential future emergencies couldn’t have arrived at a more opportune time. This has been acknowledged by officials from this autonomous department and the Tenerife Council, including the insular director of Security and Emergencies, Iván Martín, who mentioned that some of his acquaintances found great value in the exercise conducted on October 24. However, whether Tenerife and the other islands are adequately preparing for this new climatic reality remains a pressing concern—especially since many continue to deny the existence of climate change.
The eternal wait for the Baja Island radar
Since its initial proposal in 2000, Tenerife has awaited the establishment of a radar station in Buenavista, which Aemet claims is crucial for enhancing weather forecasting, particularly within a shadowed region of Tenerife, La Palma, and El Hierro that complicates preventive measures. This radar would cover a 240-kilometre radius, nearly equivalent to the dimensions of Tenerife itself, but it remains incomplete and uncommissioned.
Planned for the Cruz de Gala mountain (1,343 metres above sea level) within Teno Park, the Buenavista radar is intended to complement the existing radar in Gran Canaria. After numerous announcements and resignations, the works were awarded at the end of 2018 to the Oproler company for €2.5 million. Construction started in January 2019, but only the first phase, which involved dismantling the old fire watch tower, was completed. Subsequently, the company declared bankruptcy, resulting in the “slow and complex” process of liquidating the contract—during which the Council of State intervened—lasting until February 2020.
The pandemic further stalled the project, which encompasses a new tower for the radar, a fire surveillance area, and a designated space for technological equipment to monitor storm developments approaching the western Canary Islands (which is the majority). In 2020, Aemet approved the renewal of 20 radars across Spain and reinstated focus on Tenerife’s, yet improvements in weather prediction remain stagnant. Consequently, the province’s forecasting capability has not advanced since 31M or Delta. The unfortunate reality is that these shortcomings are frequently pointed out, often sparking confrontations among politicians.
